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10.18.18 – SPOKES Notes & Photos

SPOKES Notes by Paul Arnold

Community Engagement projects coming up include a new ramp build and a “Read for the Record” event.

Nate Churchill introduced the over 13 guests at the meeting and two Interact students from Catholic Central introduced themselves.

Julie Brinks, VP GM of Wood TV, introduced our keynote Speaker, Rick Albin and noted that he has interviewed every President from Ford to Obama.

Rick addressed the controversy over polling and suggested that the polls in Michigan during the last week of the 2016 Presidential election had Hillary up by only 4 points with a margin of error of +/- 4 —which suggests there could be a tie.

Going forward, norms may not be as reliable as they once were. Progressive voters are certainly activated during this election— but it is uncertain at what level. Rick suggested that he is looking closely at some specific races to gauge more general trends. A poll he will revealed October 25th should give more insight.

The historical trend is for the party in power to lose seats during a mid-term election. There is a much larger number of “undecided” voters (10 to 14%) in part because of the toxic political environment.

Rick noted that 30% percent of the sampled 600 respondents were cell phone users so he is confident in the “randomness” of the poll results. The three proposals on this year’s ballot all seem to be polling 12 to 15% in favor but those voters unsure are likely to vote no. Many of the candidates are emphasizing their independence as apposed to their party affiliation. The Bernie Sanders primary win in Michigan certainly contributed to the results in the general election. Rick admitted that Trump’s win in Michigan was a surprise but the margin of error factor did not prove that the polls were completely faulty.

 

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